Even the most fuel efficient cars in the U.S. (Presently I am on site at our factory in the Netherlands, and I ride a bike to work).īut, even when I do have to travel to the office, at $100 a gallon, that 47 mile round trip will add up. In fact, I have never actually made the commute, as the 4 days I spent in the office preceded the purchase of my house. So, a long daily commute is not something I have to deal with. Since I started with my new company on March 1st, I have spent just 4 days in the office. The fact is, I don't spend much time in the office. However, I did this with my eyes wide open. Looking at my own situation, I just bought a house 23.5 miles from my office. So my assumption is to simply determine what is within my power to change as fuel prices climb - and I am forced to make difficult choices. So the idea is really, with respect to fossil fuels, "How low can you realistically go?" I don't want to make any assumptions on what would be happening in the economy as a whole, because in reality the economy would have collapsed under those prices. Alternative (non-fossil fuel) energy sources, such as solar and nuclear, would also follow this trend, but not at the same rate since they are less dependent on fossil fuel inputs. Because many of our energy sources are interchangeable, let's assume that other fossil fuel sources (coal, gas, etc.) follow suit. Let's presume that gasoline prices increase to $100 at a steady rate over the next 5 years. What I would like is to hear how you would cope with $100 a gallon gasoline. This is already reality for some, as your $100/gal dilemma is someone else's dilemma at $4/gal. The thought experiment is mainly designed to flesh out how people might cope as gasoline becomes more expensive and as we go down the depletion curve. So the point is to jump so far out there - $100/gal - that there is no question that 99% of us would have to make some serious changes. I bet he would have a change of heart if gasoline was $100 a gallon. A friend who drives a Suburban recently told me that he doesn't care about gas prices that he is going to keep driving at the same rate regardless. Oh, they might buy a smaller car, but they aren't going to start walking 3 miles to the store.
Now that gas is $4, many have realized they won't make big changes at $10. When I ask people at what price point gasoline is going to have a major impact on their lifestyle, that seems to be a moving target. But that misses the point of the thought experiment. Nobody thinks we are going to have to deal with gasoline at $100 a gallon. What would I, personally, do if gasoline was $100 a gallon? Now that may seem silly. Lately I have been thinking of another thought experiment. Rather, it can help frame for me whether the idea is daft from conception, or whether there is a nugget of potential embedded within. It isn't that I think we are going to build a solar grid that is 50 by 50 miles of nothing but solar panels, nor that I am oblivious to energy storage issues. For instance, if I wonder how much land it would take for solar panels to produce enough electricity to supply the U.S., that's a thought experiment. I like to ask "What If?" This can help me wrap my head around a problem.
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